Gold and the herd of Cryptos: Saving oil in blurry times

This paper assesses the effectiveness of a broad set of 1066 active and continuously traded cryptocurrencies as a safe haven instrument against extreme oil price movements, in comparison to the corresponding roles of gold. The uncertainty for the oil market during the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent Russia–Ukraine conflict set the tone for natural experiments for our study. We use a trail-blazing dynamic generalized autoregressive score model to estimate the tail riskiness of the potential safe haven assets from January 1, 2020, to September 30, 2022. By estimating the risk exposure of all cryptocurrency assets, we determine top ten safest assets for investment. Our results show the emergence of new safe haven cryptocurrencies, which have previously been ignored by the academic literature and policy makers alike. Intriguingly, our findings reveal that gold has been replaced by altcoins as the safest assets during both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. At this instance, our findings suggest that Bitcoin provides lengthier safe haven properties than gold for oil returns in both periods. However, the safe haven properties of gold and cryptocurrencies are time varying. Last but not least, we introduce a new Cryptocurrency Tail Risk Index (CTRI) that captures the risk exposure of cryptocurrency market, as a whole. Our results suggest that investment in numerous cryptocurrencies provides lengthier safe haven properties than investing in gold alone.

Hedge and safe-haven properties of FAANA against gold, US Treasury, bitcoin, and US Dollar/CHF during the pandemic period

The sudden market crash around 20 February 2020 on the dawn of the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the digitalization of all human communication and revived the interest for risk mitigation during stress periods. Interestingly, FAANA (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Alphabet) stocks exhibited positive returns with remarkable resilience throughout the pandemic period, suggesting a change in their investing risk. In this paper, we take a different step from the existing literature and examine the hedging, diversifying, and safe haven properties of FAANA stocks against four alternative assets, namely gold, U.S. Treasury bonds, Bitcoin, and U.S. Dollar/CHF. Our analysis covers an extended sample period comprising the heightened uncertainty during the recent pandemic period. It involves conditional correlations, optimal weights, hedge ratios, and hedging effectiveness for the pairs of FAANA stock and alternative asset during the full sample period and the COVID-19 pandemic period. The results show that the majority of FAANA stocks serve as weak/strong safe havens against gold, Treasury bonds, Bitcoin, and Dollar/CHF in the full sample period. Further, few FAANA stocks serve as strong safe havens against the U.S. Treasury and Dollar/CHF during the pandemic. Our findings suggest that FAANA, once thought as risky high growth tech stocks, have gained maturity and became a safe blanket during the latest turbulent period. © 2022 Elsevier Inc.

Does safe haven exist? Tail risks of commodity markets during COVID-19 pandemic

This paper investigates the tail behavior patterns of commodity assets, the risk exposure of these assets, and how they rank given their safe haven properties. We use state-of-the-art dynamic generalized autoregressive score models to jointly estimate tail risk measures for ten commodity assets (aluminum, copper, crude oil, gasoline, gold, heating oil, lead, soybeans, tin, and wheat) over the period from September 14, 2011 to June 30, 2021. Our in-sample findings suggest that aluminum outperforms gold as a safe haven in both pre- and COVID-19 times. The out-of-sample results confirm that aluminum retains its leading role during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings bear implications for constructing well-diversified portfolios which is vital for investors, portfolio managers, and financial advisors, and for policymakers to design policies that ensure financial stability during periods of market turmoil, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. © 2022 Elsevier B.V.

Does safe haven exist? Tail risks of commodity markets during COVID-19 pandemic

This paper investigates the tail behavior patterns of commodity assets, the risk exposure of these assets, and how they rank given their safe haven properties. We use state-of-the-art dynamic generalized autoregressive score models to jointly estimate tail risk measures for ten commodity assets (aluminum, copper, crude oil, gasoline, gold, heating oil, lead, soybeans, tin, and wheat) over the period from September 14, 2011 to June 30, 2021. Our in-sample findings suggest that aluminum outperforms gold as a safe haven in both pre- and COVID-19 times. The out-of-sample results confirm that aluminum retains its leading role during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings bear implications for constructing well-diversified portfolios which is vital for investors, portfolio managers, and financial advisors, and for policymakers to design policies that ensure financial stability during periods of market turmoil, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Hedge and safe-haven properties of FAANA against gold, US Treasury, bitcoin, and US Dollar/CHF during the pandemic period#

The sudden market crash around 20 February 2020 on the dawn of the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the digitalization of all human communication and revived the interest for risk mitigation during stress periods. Interestingly, FAANA (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Alphabet) stocks exhibited positive returns with remarkable resilience throughout the pandemic period, suggesting a change in their investing risk. In this paper, we take a different step from the existing literature and examine the hedging, diversifying, and safe haven properties of FAANA stocks against four alternative assets, namely gold, U.S. Treasury bonds, Bitcoin, and U.S. Dollar/CHF. Our analysis covers an extended sample period comprising the heightened uncertainty during the recent pandemic period. It involves conditional correlations, optimal weights, hedge ratios, and hedging effectiveness for the pairs of FAANA stock and alternative asset during the full sample period and the COVID-19 pandemic period. The results show that the majority of FAANA stocks serve as weak/strong safe havens against gold, Treasury bonds, Bitcoin, and Dollar/CHF in the full sample period. Further, few FAANA stocks serve as strong safe havens against the U.S. Treasury and Dollar/CHF during the pandemic. Our findings suggest that FAANA, once thought as risky high growth tech stocks, have gained maturity and became a safe blanket during the latest turbulent period.

The 2008 global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic: How safe are the safe haven assets?

We compare the performance of safe-haven assets during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 pandemic. First, regarding the GFC, we find, intermediate (weak) safe haven evidence for US dollar, Swiss franc and T-bonds (Gold, Silver and T-bills). Second, with regard to COVID, we find gold is very risky in some settings, while silver has become extremely risky. Collectively, our findings suggest that the character of safe-haven assets has changed between the crises. Therefore, investors should exercise extreme care when investing in potential safe-haven assets during times of market stress.